要是中国的消费者无法从通胀的本质中获得一些安慰,中国的宏观经济学家却可以。三分之二的通胀的是由食品价格造成的,而影响食品价格的主要是猪肉价格。由于去年猪肉价格低,于是农民养的猪就减少了,还因为自从猪腹泻病出现以来,农民就开始减少养猪了。这致使猪肉价格单单在6月份就上涨了11.4%,按年率计算上涨了265%。这导致许多经济学家的通胀预测失灵。里昂证券的安迪?罗思曼说:或许我应该成为一名素食主义者了。
The source of Chinas growth is more worrying than its speed. According to Mark Williams ofCapital Economics, investment comprised 62% of the economys expansion in the secondquarter, its biggest contribution for 18 months. Investment in fixed assets, such as buildings,factories and equipment, has grown by between 21% and 26%, year on year, for the past fourquarters, despite the governments efforts to tighten credit. This resilience may be becauseso much investment is carried out by state-owned firms, which are at the top of the peckingorder when banks make loans. It may also be a sign that financing is not as tight as the hawkswould like.
中国的增长点比其增长速度更令人担忧。资本经济公司的马克?威廉姆斯称,投资在第二季度的经济增长中占到了62%,是18个月来最大的贡献者。尽管政府努力收紧信贷,但是在过去四个季度,建筑、工厂和设备等固定资产的投资同期增长了21%至26%。有这样的增长速度可能是因为大部分都是国有企业投资的,当各银行放贷时它们拔得了头筹。这可能也说明融资并没有强硬派希望的那样艰难。
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