虽然克林顿的那场战役能鼓励奥巴马,也应使他感到担心。在1991年春天老布什的连任看起来将一帆风顺,第二年11月这位老总统的连任已经看不到任何希望主要原因就是当时疲软的经济。经过这次自1929年来最严重的金融冲击之后,美国经济的恢复更为缓慢。首季度增长缓慢只有1.8%。 5月份失业率实际上升到9.1%:职位创造率只与劳动年龄人口增长率持平。三分之二的美国人认为国家经济已误入歧途,认为国家经济在正确轨道上的只有三分之一。那些最愤怒的美国人聚集在那些竞争最激烈的几个州:佛罗里达州,密歇根州和俄亥俄州,共和党中期选举时在这几个州都有明显收获。
In 2008 Mr Obama represented change. This time he will have to fend off charges that he is toblame for the achingly slow recovery by arguing that it would have been worse without hisactions, such as his $800 billion stimulus package and the takeover of GM and Chrysler. Thatmay be true but it is not easy to sell a counterfactual on the stump . And there are other holes in Mr Obamas record. What happened to his promises todo something about the environment or immigration or Guantnamo? Why should anybusinessman support a chief executive who has let his friends in the labour movement runamok and who let his health-care bill be written by Democrats in Congress? Above all, why hashe never produced a credible plan to tackle the budget deficit, currently close to 10% of GDP?Asking these questions will surely give any Republican a perch in this race. But to beat thepresident, the Republicans need both a credible candidate and credible policies.
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