The reason is that unemployment is falling not justbecause of job creation but because the pool ofpeople who want to work, the labour force, is notgrowing. Many people seem to have dropped out ofthe labour force for good, perhaps to retire, collectdisability, or return to education. And their rankscould grow. Typically, those who have beenunemployed the longest are the most likely to dropout of the job hunt. But Alan Krueger, an economistat Princeton, says that has changed.
失业率下降的原因不是因为创造了就业机会,而是因为愿意工作的人群,也就是劳动力队伍,并没有扩大。 许多人似乎已经永远退出了劳动力群体,也许是退休了,也许领取了残疾证,或接受继续教育。这支队伍的人数可能会增长。一般来说,那些已经很久出于失业状态的人最有可能退出找工作的群体。 但是艾伦克鲁格说,这发生了变化。
Since 2007, he has found, the share of the long-term unemployed that drop out of the labourforce has fallen steadily. He attributes this in part to the extension of unemployment benefitto 99 weeks from the normal 26 weeks. People who might have stopped looking for work keepat it to qualify for benefits. When the extended benefits expire at the end of this year, manyof the long-term unemployed may simply drop out of the labour force. Meanwhile, those withthe shortest spells of unemployment are now more likely to drop out, perhaps to return tocollege.
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