There are many reasons for the governments hard-line defence of its one-child policy. One is aperhaps understandable view that China is unique, and that other countries experience isirrelevant. A second is that, though the policy may not have done much to push fertility downat first, it might be keeping it low now. A third is that, if controls were lifted, population growthmight rise. In fact, there is little justification for such fears: in practice, the one-child policyvaries from place to place; it hardly applies to Chinas minorities and is more lightly applied inrural areasand there is no population boom in those parts.
中国政府对于独生子女政策的笃信处于很多原因。其中一个可以说是也许能令人理解的原因是中国的独特性,也就是其他国家的经验不能照搬。另一个原因是,独生子女政策虽然并没能在一开始降低出生率,但它可能保持现在低出生率水平。此外,如果放松控制,人口增长率可能再次上升。实际上,这些担心完全是多余的:正在实施中的独生子女政策在中国各地的各不相同的,同时它也很难应用于中国的少数民族和农村地区,而在这些地区并没有人口急速发展的趋势。
Anyway, argues Joan Kaufman of the Heller Schoolfor Social Policy and Management at BrandeisUniversity, official support for the policy is only partlyto do with its perceived merits: it is also the productof resistance by Chinas family-planningbureaucracy. This has massive institutional clout. The one-child policy istheir raison dtre, says Ms Kaufman.
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