Fukushima Dai-ichi, it is true, was swamped by a natural catastrophe of biblical proportions.But this argument cuts both ways. Nuclear planners clearly did not appreciate how bad thingscould get on a low-lying coast in a seismic zone; and poor planning is part of the problem. Onereason why Japanese confidence in nuclear power had been growing in recent years was thatpast scandals led to resignations and the prospect of reform among planners, powercompanies and regulators. Whereas in 2005 only a quarter of people felt nuclear energy wassafe, by last year more than 40% did, according to a survey by Japans Cabinet Office. Findingsites for new reactors was not proving easyand old reactors stayed online as a resultbut itdid not seem impossible.
的确,福岛第一核电站灭顶之灾的元凶是一场规模极为宏大的自然灾难。不过这种说法却是双刃剑。核能规划者们显然未能认识到在震区地势低洼的海岸边,情况能够变得多糟;而拙劣的设计正是问题的一部分。近年来,日本人对核能的信心之所以越发高涨,其原因之一在于往日的丑闻以辞职收场,并带来了规划者、电力公司和监管者进行改革的前景。根据日本内阁府的调查,2005年时仅有四分之一的民众认为核能是安全的,而去年持此观点者已超过四成。为新反应堆选址虽并不容易,但看起来也并非毫无可能。
Elsewhere, too, the industry was reviving. Figuresfrom the World Nuclear Association, a trade body,have shown more capacity planned and proposedthan on the ground. Now much of this expansionlooks likely to be curtailed. Even the replacement ofreactors may be in question.
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