But such a program carries great risks. In 1961, a CIA-trained force made an unsuccessful attempt to land at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba and topple Fidel Castro. It was a humiliation for the then-new president, John F. Kennedy.
In the 1980s, the CIA, in concert with Pakistan, armed and trained anti-Soviet Afghan rebels. The rebels, known as mujahedin, drove the Soviet army out, but many of their members went on to form the nucleus of the Taliban and al-Qaida. And many of the sophisticated weapons the mujahedin received, such as shoulder-held surface-to-air missiles, were unaccounted for at wars end.
Reva Bhalla says the governments involved in the anti-Gadhafi coalition are worried about both a kind of Bay of Pigs in the desert, where the rebels are defeated, and possible infiltration of the rebels by radical Islamists.
I think thats the biggest question thats on the minds of many of these governments because it just isnt clear, said Bhalla. This is not a very sophisticated or militarily capable opposition force. And then theres the concern of whether some of the more Islamist militant types are mixed in within this opposition. And if theyre going to be moved to arm and supply these rebels, is that something that is going to have serious blowback down the line.
What the CIA actually ends up doing in Libya may never be publicly known. But, as former CIA officers have pointed out, the larger an operation, the more difficult it is to keep it secret.
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