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爱面子

This week, I was asked by a Swedish newspaper, Svenska Dagbladet, to share my views on the prize and predict this year's winner. Here's part of my response:

"I don't have any personal preference who should win. Winners, however, should be selected not only by their literary excellence, but by the everlasting value of their work. Many in China consider the Nobel Prize the ultimate award. We can totally understand why those 'flash in the pans' should be eschewed and why the literature prize should not be evenly spread for demographic and political representation. That said, the award in literature does seem to be largely Western-centric with an occasional nod to Asian writers, which can be interpreted as a symbolic gesture of friendliness and goodwill.

"For many years, there was a yearning in China for one of our own to win the Nobel Prize in literature. Now that sentiment has subsided. While it is true it is not a popularity contest and does not have the responsibility to buoy the spirit of a nation, it is losing relevance among lovers of literature in China. So, to answer your question, it does not matter one way or another. The selection process is secretive and elitist, and there is little joy in guessing who will win. As long as it is a worthy choice, nobody will complain - not in public."

I have no idea whom the Nobel jury will select. If an award is determined by a panel of thousands, one can study trends and gauge where the wind is blowing. But if the jury is made up of a dozen people, anything can happen. The dynamics of discussion and persuasion will determine the result. But the five finalists are not made public. Even if they were, the likelihood of making a right guess is not high. Statistically, the winner will be a writer from a Western country. Much as I'd love a Chinese writer to win, say, Mo Yan, Yu Hua or Su Tong, I would not bet on it.