For many,the way he described China’s health was no surprise.The country’s economy has not been growing this slowly since the 1990s.Companies in debt are seeing sickly profit margins.Banks are carrying loads of debt,too,and the housing market is slowing.China’s official 2015 GDP growth target is 7%,but that seems shaky.
Acknowledging that significant intervention has to be on the table is a big deal for China.Everyone has known for years that this slowdown was coming because the government is purposely transitioning its economy from one based on foreign investment to one based on domestic consumption.It is a brutal process,but the government knows it is the only way the country will become the selfsustaining superpower it wants to be.
(Barlcays)Until now,while the Chinese government had acknowledged the slowdown was rough,it had assured the world that the situation was under control.Just a few weeks ago,Chinese officials were saying they would be monitoring deflation but still were not that keen on intervening with policy measures.
Now it seems they are warming to the idea.In January,China’s headline consumer price inflation hit 0.8%,then it bounced back up to 1.4% in February.March probably isn’t looking that great either from the People’s Bank of China’s point.
“Widening PPI deflation and soft CPI inflation,especially after adjusting for seasonal effects,point to persistent deflation risks,” Barclays wrote after February’s number came out.“In our view,the monetary policy needs to be more ‘proactive’ in order to deal with the cyclical challenges in the near term.”
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