4. Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics by Richard H. Thaler
理查德·H·泰勒《行为不端:行为经济学的诞生》
Traditional economics assume that people are rational and will act in their own best interests, when in fact people are irrational and frequently make very silly and stupid decisions, both individually and en masse.
传统的经济学假定人们是理性的,且均按自身利益最大化行动。而实际上,人们是非理性的。他们,要么集体,要么个人,经常做出极其愚蠢的决定。
"The problem is the model being used by economists (…) which I like to call an Econ for short. Compared to this fictional world of Econs, humans do a lot of misbehaving, and that means that economic models make a lot of bad predictions. Virtually no economists saw the financial crisis of 2007-08 coming, and worse, many thought that both the crash and its aftermath were things that simply could not happen."
“问题在于经济学家们使用的模型,(此处省略若干字),我喜欢将其简称为‘Econ’。与众多Econ模型构成的虚拟世界相比,人类的许多行为都不端正。而这意味着这些经济模型会带来诸多预测失误。几乎没有经济学家预见到了2007-2008年的金融危机,而且更糟的是,许多经济学家认为这场灾难及其后果本是可以不必发生的。”
5. Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice by Bill Browder
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