Bryan Wang, principal analyst at Forrester Market Advisory (Beijing) Co, said China Mobile's target of 100 million 4G smartphone sales next year is "somewhat surprising", since the carrier's total user base was about 760 million as of October.
China United Netcom and China Telecom Corp managed to increase their 3G user base to 100 million each over three years, "but China Mobile wants to achieve a similar goal in one year," Wang said.
The bold target, in terms of both network deployment and smartphone sales, will impose a heavy burden on China Mobile's budget, Wang said.
"China Mobile is very likely to make record high capital expenditures in 2017, even though the company already invested huge sums in 4G projects this year," he added.
The introduction of Apple Inc's iPhone handsets could be even more costly. Since China Mobile will offer generous incentives for high-end 4G flagship smartphones such as the iPhone 5S, the company may spend tens of billions of yuan in device subsidies next year, Wang said.
According to China Mobile's financial statements, its capital spending in 2013 will be up 49 percent to 190.2 billion yuan ($30.5 billion). More than half of the company's network expenditure, 42 billion yuan, is flowing into the 4G sector.
Gao Nianshu, general manager of China Mobile Communications Corp's market operations department, said China Mobile expects to invest 27 billion yuan in handset subsidies in 2013. The figure will continue to increase in the coming years.
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