如果发生导致股市崩盘、或导致企业大幅削减投资支出的事态失控的话,会产生风险。请记住贸易争端可能造成经济损失、但不引发衰退的方式。前白宫经济顾问加里·科恩(Gary Cohn)本周说,关税可能会抵消去年底通过的减税法案带来的经济好处。尽管如此,由于经济状况相对很好,“增长比在没有贸易战的情况下缓慢”与经济彻底衰退之间有很大的差别。
Will this mean higher prices?
这将意味着更高的价格吗?
The initial tariffs on Chinese goods are not focused on consumer products. They are to be levied on products mainly purchased by businesses, such as industrial equipment. That could mean upward pressure on inflation eventually, but in subtle ways.
首批加征关税的中国产品并不针对消费品。这些关税是对主要由企业购买的产品征收的,比如工业设备。这可能意味着最终会有让通货膨胀上行的压力,但是以一种微妙的方式。
Even if the dispute spreads to consumer goods, the actual amount American consumers will pay depends on many factors, including the availability of domestic substitutes and the competitiveness of the industry. For any given product, it is hard to predict how much of a 25 percent tariff will be passed through to consumers versus absorbed by producers and retailers.
即使争端扩大到消费品,美国消费者实际要掏出的钱取决于许多因素,包括国内替代品的供应和那个行业中有多少竞争。对任何给定产品来说,很难预测加征的25%的关税中将有多少会转嫁到消费者身上,而不是被生产商和零售商吸收。
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