So, will there be a new Cold War between China and the US? The political atmosphere between the two countries is highly abnormal and incendiary, as the specter of the old Cold War looms and the smell of gunpowder pervades. Meanwhile, dignitaries in the US military and intelligence communities are fabricating stories and standing facts on their head by claiming that China is waging a silent cold war and mobilizing all its resources to usurp the US. It does appear, to some extent, that the return to geopolitical tension and jostling for position among the great powers has created the basic conditions for a new cold war. But what's most concerning are the warnings by some serious scholars that the rivalry between the two powers could be spiraling down towards the Thucydides Trap. Fortunately, this is not inevitable in view of the fast changing geo-political dynamics on the world stage, mostly favorable to China. Thanks to President Xi's bold actions, China is now viewed by many as the champion of free trade, sustainable development, efforts to counter climate change and world peace, having supplied the most number of troops to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force. The world community is not blind to China's benevolent influence, and how it uses its power for the greater good of humanity. With such a track record, it's hard to see China firing the first shot in a hot war.
传统的冷战,双方关系的对抗性极强。冷战双方,尤其是首先挑起的一方,以攻击对方制度、否定对方价值观、诋毁对方影响、削弱对方力量、颠覆对方政权为出发点和最高目标。美国借这些手段加速了前苏联的消亡和分裂。时代不同了,产生冷战的诸因素中,制度的不同可以说是形成对抗的最基本因素,但已不是唯一和决定性的。价值观和利益也都可以说与制度因素同等重要,但也都不是唯一的和决定性的。笔者以为,结合并高于以上三要素的“霸权谋取”、“霸权维护”和“霸凌主义”才是最根本的因素,是一切冷战最基本的共性。这一看法或许也解释了相同制度下、同一价值观体系内无法避免冷战。特朗普总统领导下的美国似乎正在成为同一体系内冷战的肇始者和践行者。
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