中国面临的更加重大的挑战在于,中国需要解决商品、服务、投资和公共采购领域存在的与贸易相关的国内监管的高壁垒。这些措施应当与改善商业氛围、 “调整”经济的国内改革密切结合起来——以使经济变得更加注重消费,减少对投资的依赖,同时给予私人部门更多的自由,减少对公共部门的控制。
Most of this wish list is not on Beijing's agenda. Leaders are not minded to curtail industrial policy and proceed with reforms beyond their WTO commitments. The latter would mean not merely liberalizing product markets but also reforming highly controlled markets for factors of production like land and capital and for energy inputs like oil, water and electricity. Those lie at the heart of domestic economics and politics. The reforms China most needs now cut to the core of the Communist Party-government-public sector nexus and its grip on power. It is unlikely to happen soon.
上述意愿中的绝大部分并不在北京的政治议程之上。领导人并不想调整工业政策以及继续推进超出WTO承诺的改革。后者不仅仅意味着放开产品市场,还意味着要改革受到高度控制的生产要素市场(比如土地和资本)和能源市场(比如石油、水资源和电力)。这些市场在国内经济和政治中处于核心位置。这种改革在短期内是不大可能发生的。
The story is not necessarily as grim as might at first appear. Earlier liberalization has left China so deeply integrated into global supply chains that it can't afford to move too far backward on reforms, and Beijing increasingly can't afford to stand still either as it endeavors to deliver steadily rising prosperity. But until it finds a way to break this impasse, China will be limited in its ability to exercise meaningful global leadership. This fact calls for some humility from Chinese leaders who otherwise appear increasingly assertive on the world stage, and for realism from foreign leaders who wish China would exercise a greater leadership role at international forums like the International Monetary Fund, the WTO and the G-20.
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