Comparing the models with actual observations, Day was able to work out what contribution the natural systems had made to what researchers have observed from satellite data.
"We could only attribute as much as 30% [of the Arctic ice loss] to the AMO," he said. "Which implies that the rest is due to something else, and this is most likely going to be man-made global change."
Previous studies had indicated that around half of the loss was due to man-made climate change and that the other half was due to natural variability.
The research is published online in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
研究发现,北极海冰夏季大面积融化可能会进一步加剧,而这其中只有30%由大西洋的自然环境变化所造成。
根据一项最新研究,北冰洋海冰的大面积融化至少有70%都是由人类活动引起的气候变化造成,而且这一比例可能还会升至95%——比科学家之前预测的还要更高。
北极周围冰盖的融化对野生动物的影响十分不利,此外海冰的融化还将使北部海域得以开辟新的航线,有机会开采新近得以勘探的海底油气。
自上世纪90年代起北极冰盖便已开始加速融化,很多科学家都认为本世纪后期北极夏季将没有冰盖,也许这一情形在本世纪20年代末便会发生。
英国瑞丁大学国家大气科学中心气象学家约翰尼•戴是这项新研究的带头人,他说:“20世纪70年代以来,北极夏季海冰已经减少了40%。”
【北冰洋冰层大面积融化 70%是人为造成】相关文章:
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