A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.
30年期美国国债目前的收益率仅为3.1%。这比长期通货膨胀预期仅高出半个百分点。如果以过往的标准来衡量,30年期国债的收益率应该至少达到4.5%,比通货膨胀率高出两个百分点。
Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.
30年期通胀挂钩国债的“实际”年收益率,即扣除通货膨胀因素后的收益率,为0.6%。而以过往的标准来衡量,这一收益率应当是2%。
The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.
购买这类债券的唯一理由只能是押注经济会重现上世纪30年代那样的大萧条,而且会出现全球性的通货紧缩。投资这类债券是在赌博,不是避险。
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2020-09-15
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