超级火山,人类灭绝的最大威胁?_BEC初级作文

超级火山,人类灭绝的最大威胁?

假设正如科学家们所建立的模型，一次超级喷发可能会杀死全球10%的人口。即使这样的火山爆发大约每71.4万年发生一次——这属于较低的频率——灾难造成的死亡人数相当于从现在到超级火山最终爆发那一年，平均每年死亡超过1000人。如果火山喷发大约每4.5万年发生一次——也就是以较高的频率——那么预计的每年死亡人数将跃升至1.7万人左右。

A bit of comparison helps here. Aviation accidents around the world caused 556 deaths in 2018. The Federal Aviation Administration alone spends more than $7 billion a year on aviation safety. Yet the United States spends only about $22 million annually on its volcano hazard programs — even though supervolcanoes, viewed over the longest of the long term, will kill far more people than plane crashes.

做点横向比较会有帮助。2018年，全球航空事故造成556人死亡。仅美国联邦航空管理局(Federal Aviation Administration)每年就在航空安全方面支出逾70亿美元。然而，美国每年在火山灾害项目上的开支仅为2200万美元，尽管从长远来看，超级火山造成的死亡人数将远远超过飞机失事造成的死亡人数。

The difference, of course, is that aviation poses a risk that is relatively constant and known. There will probably never be a year in which no one dies in an aviation accident, but there will definitely never be a year in which 10 percent of the global population dies in a single plane crash. Yet that could happen with a supervolcano, an asteroid strike or a nuclear war.