But ... there will not be a major nationwide property crash similar to those witnessed recently in the United States and not that long ago in the United Kingdom.
First-tier city property prices will remain robust and in the more select areas of these cities, prices may even rise significantly and relentlessly, not too dissimilar to the seemingly unstoppable rise in London property prices while the rest of the UK market remains fairly flat.
All future analysis of China's property "market" should first pay sufficient attention to the presence of very different segments: currently key variables being city income and infrastructure.
Expect greater fragmentation of China's property market with smaller and smaller market segments defined by smaller and smaller geographical areas.
No need for any nationwide property price panic. But there is a need for studious segmentation, strategic thinking and more modest economic expectations.
在中国,房地产价格通常被视为经济总体健康状况的“晴雨表”。如今,房价再次成为焦点。但这一次,它带来的是真正意义上的恐慌。
有报告指出,由于产能过剩和需求崩溃,越来越多的二、三线城市房价下滑,某些房价已下跌近50%。
但这真的是预示着中国更巨大的房产泡沫开始破裂?或仅仅只是人们对于中国非一线城市建设热潮有些仓促的多虑呢?
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2020-09-15
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