事实上,我把这个测试给全国成百上千的人做了,几乎没有人能做对(谷歌的软件工程师们一个也没做对,只有一个他们的观众是个例外)。你所展示的分析和推断能力是智商最重要的组成部分之一。
If you slipped up, don’t worry. The reason is a phenomenon known as confirmation bias. Most people, being charitable sorts, want to turn over the 3, find a D on the back and say: “Well done, Terry!” Actually it doesn’t matter whether the letter on the back of the 3 is D, Z or something else (look back to what he actually said).
如果你答错了,不要担心。这是源于一个名为认知偏见的现象。大多数人作为善良的群体,希望翻开卡片3,发现背后的D,然后说:“做得好,Terry!”事实上,无论在卡片3的背后是字母D,Z或是其他,都无所谓。(回去看一下他究竟说了什么)
Confirmation bias – the tendency to try to confirm pre-existing beliefs – is one reason many people believe complete nonsense (eg homeopathy).
认知偏见——趋向于证实预前存在的信念——是许多人相信完全胡说八道的事情的原因(比如顺势医疗法)。
Ironically the only way to check the truth of Terry’s statement is to try to disconfirm it – ie to try to find evidence that he is wrong (a D on the other side of the 7).
相反的是,唯一确认Terry的说法是正确的方法就是证明其不成立,也就是说找到他是错的证据(在卡片7的背后发现字母D)。
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