Moreover, Chinese dependence on exports has continued to decline over the past decade. The share of exports of goods within total Chinese GDP has fallen from a peak of 35.3% in 2006 to 18.1% in 2017 (see Chart 1). Specifically regarding exports of goods to the U.S. alone, this share of Chinese GDP has also fallen by more than half, from a peak of 7.2% in 2006 to 3.4% in 2017.
出口不再是中国经济增长的主要引擎,相反,今天中国经济增长的主要驱动力是国内需求,是由家庭消费、基础设施投资和公共产品消费来拉动的。
Exports are no longer the principal engine of Chinese economic growth. Instead, the major driver of Chinese economic growth today is its domestic demand, driven by household consumption, infrastructural investments, and public goods consumption.
图1:中国商品和服务出口及商品出口占中国GDP的百分比
中国受美国新关税影响而减少的这部分出口会占到GDP的1.7%。这一下降程度虽绝非等闲,但总体上是可控的。即使受新关税影响的所有中国对美出口都停止,并且这些商品不再出口到其他国家,中国GDP的减少也不会超过1.12%。在这种情况下,原先预期6.5%的年经济增长率会降到5.4%,但与IMF预测2018年全球3.9%的平均增长率相比,这个增长速度仍然相当可观。
The fall in Chinese exports as a result of the new U.S. tariffs would amount to 1.7% of GDP. A reduction of this magnitude is material, but quite manageable in the aggregate. Thus, even if all Chinese exports to the U.S. subject to the new tariffs were both halted and not re-directed elsewhere, the decline in Chinese GDP caused would not exceed 1.12%. Such a reduction from an expected annual growth rate of 6.5% would leave 5.4%, which is still a very respectable rate of growth compared to the world average of 3.9%, as projected by the International Monetary Fund for 2018.
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