尽管推翻残暴的阿萨德政权很重要,但其政权灭亡所伴随的风险也是显著的,必须得到减缓。例如,阿萨德倒台不应包括解雇所有政府官员或者废除国家机关,引发类似伊拉克去复兴党化(de-Ba’athification)那样的混乱。同样,果断地削弱伊朗,对于限制其把触角伸向后阿萨德时代的叙利亚将是重要的。同样关键的是,努力构建一套包容的机构和治理架构,维护叙利亚统一,防止针对阿拉维派社区的报复或者跨境挑衅。
These measures and others are vital to ensure a smoother transition to a post-Assad Syria, but they are also important for the region. Proving the oppression of one’s fellow citizens to be a bad idea would be a critical development by Middle Eastern standards. Good governance begins with a commitment to the inalienable rights and basic humanity of the governed. If the example of Mr Assad’s fall, and of the Arab uprisings, can help strengthen this commitment among ruling elites, even out of self-interest, it will be a real advance. If those who oust a dictator know that only by good governance and respect for their citizens can they retain power and earn international legitimacy, the Middle East will be moving in a better direction. It may not yet be democracy, but it is an indispensable milestone on the path to it.
这些措施以及其他一些措施,对于保证叙利亚更加平稳地向后阿萨德时代过渡是至关重要的,它们对整个地区也很重要。证明压迫国内人民是个馊主意,按中东标准将是一个关键进展。良好的治理始于对被统治者不可剥夺的权利和基本人道的承诺。如果阿萨德倒台乃至阿拉伯起义的例子能够加强统治精英的这一承诺(即便是出于私利),那就是一项重大进步。如果那些把独裁者赶下台的人明白,只有治理良好、尊重人民才能保住权力、在国际上获得合法性,那么中东将走上更加美好的道路。这或许还算不上民主,但这是走向民主道路上一块不可或缺的里程碑。
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