As someone who begins every day with an intelligence briefing, I know this is a dangerous time. But that's not because of diminished American strength or some looming superpower. In today's world, we're threatened less by evil empires and more by failing states. The Middle East is going through a transformation that will play out for a generation, rooted in conflicts that date back millennia. Economic headwinds blow from a Chinese economy in transition. Even as their economy contracts, Russia is pouring resources to prop up Ukraine and Syria – states they see slipping away from their orbit. And the international system we built after World War II is now struggling to keep pace with this new reality.

我每天的工作从听取情报简报开始，因此我知道现在是一个危险时期。但这并不是因为美国力量的削弱，或者某个超级大国的崛起。在当今世界，与其说邪恶独裁国对我们构成威胁，不如说经济衰退国对我们的影响更大。中东正在经历一场将持续二三十年的大变革，其发生的根源可追溯至一千年前的冲突。中国经济的转型正在对我们产生冲击。尽管面临自身经济衰退，俄罗斯依旧投入大量资源到乌克兰和叙利亚——这两个正脱离正常轨道的国家。二战以后我们建立的国际体系如今难以适应新形势的需要。

It's up to us to help remake that system. And that means we have to set priorities.

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