Theres a strong sense here that if they let another wishy-washy power-sharing arrangement emerge in C te dIvoire, it will create a very bad precedent, said the Western diplomat in Abuja, Nigeria, where Ecowas is based, who was not authorized to discuss the matter. The stakes here are unusually high. Either Gbagbo loses everything, or it will be a tremendous loss of face for Ecowas.
It is unclear whether Mr. Gbagbo can play for time through negotiations and somehow split the coalition of nations urging him to leave, or whether the weight of sanctions and threat of military force will compel him to surrender.
So far, there is no sign of the latter. Just the opposite, Mr. Gbagbo has deployed his security forces in opposition neighborhoods, beating and killing dozens in nighttime raids, according to the United Nations.
He has also sent around his minister of youth, Charles Bl Goud, known as the General of the Streets, to whip up popular fervor for an assault on the headquarters of his main rival, Alassane Ouattara, who has been declared the winner of the elections by the scores of countries of the United Nations General Assembly. On Wednesday, Mr. Bl Goud urged a cheering crowd to liberate the hotel where Mr. Ouattara is holed up, protected by peacekeepers.
Mr. Gbagbo proclaimed last week on state television that the international community has declared war on Ivory Coast, and that he was merely upholding the countrys Constitution against intruders, including the United Nations. On Tuesday a United Nations convoy was attacked by machete-wielding partisans in a pro-Gbagbo neighborhood, and a Bangladeshi soldier was injured.
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