As long as Mr. Gbagbo commands the loyalty of the army, he will be difficult to dislodge, analysts say. A potential blow to his hold on power came last week when African leaders blocked his access to money at the regional West African bank, possibly limiting his ability to pay his soldiers. But the impact of even that is uncertain, since the move did not put all state funds in Ivory Coast the worlds biggest cocoa exporter beyond the reach of Mr. Gbagbos entourage.
They think theyre Saudi Arabia, but theyre not; they have an obsession with autarky, said Rinaldo Depagne, an International Crisis Group analyst who has studied Ivory Coast closely, describing the Gbagbo governments belief in economic self-sufficiency.
They say, Were rich. They are ultranationalists.
Meanwhile, the principal pressure point on Mr. Gbagbo, Ecowas, is marching in new and uncertain territory. Although it has deployed military force in the past in conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea-Bissau its previous interventions have been geared towards ending civil wars, not removing entrenched leaders, wrote Gilles Yabi, the new director of the International Crisis Groups West Africa project, in a recent paper.
Mr. Gbagbos control over fiercely loyal elite units like the Republican Guard, a force of about 1,000 to 1,500 soldiers that has been central in the current wave of repression against opponents, would make him a tough match militarily.
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