A post at the New York Feds Liberty Street blog discusses the issue. You can see the divergence in core goods inflation and core services inflation in the chart below:
A few things stand out. One is how remarkably different the series are; goods and services prices occasionally move in opposite directions. Another is how very low goods inflation has been for more than a decade, only rarely straying anywhere close to 2%. And third, ones eyes are drawn to the contrasting and unusual moves from 2008 on. Those contrasting moves are important, the researchers say, because goods and services prices seem to react to different economic impulses:
We find a strong relationship between core services inflation and long-term inflation expectations. There is also an important nonlinear relationship between core services inflation and the unemployment gap, indicating that the impact of changes in labor market slack on core services inflation depends on the level of slack itself.For the core goods inflation model, the results suggest a very different set of factors influencing the behavior of the series. We find persistence in the series, that is, core goods inflation depends on its own past value. Relative import price inflationgrowth in import prices less core goods inflationalso matters, suggesting goods prices act as the linkage between supply shocks and core inflation. There is also evidence of a relationship between core goods inflation and expected inflation, but that the relevant inflation expectations are associated with a short-term horizon. Last, we find no meaningful effect of the unemployment gap on core goods inflation, consistent with commentators who contend that it is global economic slack that impacts core goods inflation.More simply, services inflation is about expectations and unemployment, while goods inflation is about global capacity utilisation. That makes sense; to a first approximation services are people. Goods are also people, a little bit. But they are more energy, materials, and supply chains. Goods prices rise faster when one of those three factors bumps up against constraints. Service prices rise faster when there arent enough people to go around.
【雅思阅读精选:超越货物与人的通货膨胀】相关文章:
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2016-02-26
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