The view from Serendip
塞伦迪普景观
Some economists are considering how Mr Romer s heresy might applytoday. Daron Acemoglu, Gino Gancia, and Fabrizio Zilibotti of MIT, CREi and the University of Zurich, havebuilt a model to study this. It shows firms in rich countries shippinglow-skill tasks abroad when offshoring costs little, thus driving apart thewages of skilled and unskilled workers at home. Over time, though, offshoringraises wages in less-skilled countries; that makes innovation at home moreenticing. Workers are in greater demand, the income distribution narrows, andthe economy comes to look more like the post-second-world-war period than the 1970sand their aftermath.
部分经济学家正在考虑如何将罗莫的异想天开应用于今天。麻省理工学院的Daron Acemoglu、CREi的Gino Gancia和苏黎世大学的Fabrizio Zilibotti创建了一个模型对此进行研究。研究显示,富国的公司在离岸成本降低的时候会将低技能的工作输出到海外,因而将本国有技能的工人与无技能的工人的工资割裂开来。然而,随着时间的推移,外包提高了较低技能的国家的工资;这使得本国的创新更加诱人。对工人的需求在增加,收入分配在缩小。因而,经济越来越像二战后期,而不是像20世纪70年代及其之后那样。
Even if that model is mistaken, the rise of the emerging world isamong the biggest reasons for optimism. The larger the size of the globalmarket, the more the world benefits from a given new idea, since it can then beapplied across more activities and more people. Raising Asia s poor billionsinto the middle class will mean that millions of great minds that mightotherwise have toiled at subsistence farming can instead join the moderneconomy and share the burden of knowledge with rich-world researchersa sharingthat information technology makes ever easier.
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