就算这种模型有误,新兴国家的崛起也是乐观的最主要的原因之一。全球市场的规模越大,世界得之于某个特定新思想的益处越多,因为这种新思想随后能够在更多的活动和更多的人中得到应用。将亚洲的数亿穷人提升为中产意味着,那些原本有可能为生存农业而辛苦劳作的数百万生灵,反而能够加入到当代的经济中来,并且能同富国的研究者分担知识的负担信息技术使这种分享更加容易。
It may still be the case that some parts of the economy are immune,or at least resistant, to some of the productivity improvement that informationtechnology can offer. Sectors like health care, education and government, inwhich productivity has proved hard to increase, loom larger within the economythan in the past. The frequent absence of market pressure in such areas reducesthe pressure for cost savingsand for innovation.
仍然有可能会出现经济体的某些部分对信息技术能够提供的生产率提高具备免疫力,或者至少是表现出对抗性的情况。相比过去,像医疗保健、教育和政府等早已被证明难以提高生产率的部门对经济体的威胁要更紧迫。这些领域内常见的市场压力的缺失降低了节约成本以及创新的压力。
For some, though, the opposite outcome is the one to worry about.Messrs Brynjolfsson and McAfee fear that the technological advances of thesecond half of the chessboard could be disturbingly rapid, leaving a scourge oftechnological unemployment in their wake. They argue that new technologies andthe globalisation that they allow have already contributed to stagnant incomesand a decline in jobs that require moderate levels of skill. Further progresscould threaten jobs higher up and lower down the skill spectrum that had, untilnow, seemed safe.
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