加拿大人绝对有理由为美国骤然回落的房价担忧。加拿大房价远超2007年水平,2011年第三季度到第四季度间增幅加速。 尽管单用收入衡量,加拿大楼市看似则不那么泡沫,而且加拿大的贷方远比金融危机前的美国贷方有教养,但目前租售比显示加拿大房产被高估了76%。加拿大政府则希望通过强化融资规来刺激楼市放缓。
In large, global cities there is another dimension to house-price movements. Where foreigndemand is an important part of the local property market, exchange rates matter foraffordability, as our analysis of prices adjusted for trade-weighted exchange ratesindicates . Consider London. Homes there may feel as expensive as ever toBritons, but a large sterling depreciation means houses look some 15% cheaper to foreignersnow than they did five years ago. Dollar weakness has left New York homes some 30%cheaper for international buyers than in 2006. By contrast, a dearer loonie has driven upToronto home values by nearly 90% since 2006, compared with a rise of 32% inlocal-currency terms. The yuan s slow but steady rise has magnified appreciation inShanghai. Small wonder Chinese buyers are so visible in London and Manhattan.
国际大都市的房价波动还有一个特点。本刊对房价随贸易加权汇率的变动的分析显示,若当地房地产市场以国外需求为主,购买力必受外汇汇率的影响。举伦敦为例,在英国人眼中的房价也许与往常持平,但对外国买家而言,英镑的大幅贬值使得英国住房比5年前便宜约15%。美元疲软拖累纽约房价,使其比2006年便宜了近30%,国际买家坐收渔利。 反之,2006年起不断升值的路尼则将多伦多的房价抬升近90%,按本币计算相对上涨32%。受缓慢稳健升值的人民币影响,上海房价涨幅扩大。难怪来伦敦和曼哈顿买房的中国人越来越多。
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