通胀预期在最近几个月已经略微加强。但是即使工人预期通胀会失控,他们仍无能为力。汇丰银行的KarenWard估计,焦急的员工因为害怕被解雇而不会要求加薪。
Rich-world economies are also running well below capacity. According to the OECD, in 2010the G7 economies were anywhere between 2.4% and 4.7% below potentialoutput. Such estimates are notoriously imprecise. But if the recovery had alreadyeliminated excess capacity they would be in the wrong city, not just the wrong ballpark.
发达国家经济经济资源远未达到充分利用。根据经济合作发展组织,2010年七国集团经济实际产出低于潜在产出,差额为2.4%至4.7%之间。那类估计十分不准确。但是如果复苏已经消除过剩产能,则错误之处就不仅是细枝末节而是大前提就错了。
The story is very different in emerging economies. Many of these got back to their pre-crisislevels of output in 2009. With capacity constraints starting to bite, underlying inflation ison the up. Households inflation expectations are also rising. In China they are at theirhighest for over a decade and there are signs of growing wage pressure. Higher wages arenot, by themselves, a bad thing, especially in a country like China where pay has for yearsfailed to keep pace with rapid productivity growth. The danger comes when loosemonetary conditions and an overheating economy mean prices and wages chase each otherupward.
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