说明中有一部分是统计结果。暖冬的原因使得统计结果与第一季度同期相比有了更多的解释。并且由于地域政治危机,特别在乌克兰,产生了更大的影响。德国对俄出口直线下降,因为给定了时间减少了制裁,下降比预期中来的更猛烈。而俄罗斯仅占有德国贸易总额的3%,所以在高出口的地方更容易出现损失。更糟糕的是,俄罗斯持续上涨的不确定性,导致了投资经理人的投资延误,被广泛视为基准的德国IFO商业景气指数在八月份也出现下降情况。
Aside from such new risks, however, the underlying German economy still looks strong. Thefederal budget is close to balance. Unemployment remains low: indeed, labour shortages are anincreasing problem. This applies to large businesses such as care for the elderly, but especiallyto many of the niches for which Germany is famous, such as hearing-aid acoustics, according tothe Cologne Institute for Economic Research.
除却这些新的风险,德国经济基础看起来依然强劲。财政预算趋于收支平衡,失业率也处在低水平范围:事实上,劳动力短缺问题日益严重。根据科隆经济研究所的报告,低失业率适用于那些负责照顾老人的大企业,特别是那些在德国境内十分著名的岗位,比如助听器声学。
Germany s best contribution to recovery in the euro zone would be to let wages rise.Whether they are already doing so will not become clear for months, because Germany reportsthe relevant statistics more slowly than most. But the willingness is there. In July JensWeidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, Germany s notoriously hawkish central bank,caused a sensation by calling for pay rises of 3% on average. A new minimum wage should alsonudge wages up. It will take effect in 2015 at 8.50 an hour, more than 40% of the medianwage.
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