时事资讯:看涨派不再看好美股前景_时事

时事资讯:看涨派不再看好美股前景

In March, analysts who picked the bottom were a lonely lot. Panic was widespread, and previously bullish analysts were advising clients to stay out of the market. Yet rather than double down on their bearish take, some long-time market skeptics decided a bottom was near.

One who shifted gears, Michael Darda, chief economist at brokerage firm MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn., is optimistic about stocks' prospects for next year. But he harbors doubts about stocks' ability to eke out gains past 2010.

On Feb. 24, after months of advising clients to invest defensively, Mr. Darda released a note entitled 'Getting More Constructive,' in which he said, 'Several indicators that caused us to go bearish on equities last summer have recently improved.'

Though he now suggests the market could be due for a pause after its breakneck rally, Mr. Darda says he believes the economic recovery will be more robust than most investors expect, driving the SP 500 to 1200 or 1300 next year.

'The depth of the recession, the turn in leading economic indicators and the shift in credit markets, which has been pretty dramatic, lead us to an above-consensus view on GDP and earnings, in line with our stock-market target,' he says.

Beyond 2010, the outlook may not be so sunny given the prospect of Federal Reserve monetary tightening, the potential for higher tax rates as a result of swollen government budget deficits and other headwinds.