此外,贸易战会给整个中国经济带来冲击。关税成本的上升将加大中国保持经济增长、减少企业债务的难度。这两个因素,加上监管机构推动高水平债务去杠杆,有可能让金融经济的流动性减少。因此,我们预计贷款的提供会减少,而且不仅银行业想必如此,贷款减少也会扩大到在线贷款领域,后者可能会着手从正规金融机构或其他个人及公司筹资。由于资金不足,可以提供给消费者和小企业的贷款也会下降。所以该行业无疑会受到负面影响。
In addition, there will be knock-on effects throughout China's economy from the trade war. Increased costs from tariffs will contribute to China's struggle to maintain economic growth and reduce corporate debt. These two factors, coupled with a regulatory push to deleverage high levels of debt, are likely to reduce liquidity in the economy. As a result, we can expect available loans to decline. It seems highly plausible that this would extend not only to the banking sector, but also to the online lending sector, which may start to channel funds from formal financial institutions or from other individuals and firms. As there is less money to go around, there will be fewer loans available to consumers and small businesses. Undoubtedly, this will negatively impact the sector.
人们手中的资金少了,他们投入网上财富管理服务的钱就会更少。中国的网上财富管理服务允许用户把他们的钱投向货币市场基金和组合基金。例如,阿里巴巴为网上购物者提供余额宝服务,好让他们把余钱投给一只货币市场基金;宜信公司的母基金则覆盖多种资产类型。这些投资渠道越来越受欢迎,因为中国几乎没有其他稳定、回报率高的投资场所。由于贸易战的负面影响,可以用来进行私人投资的资金或许会缩减。
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