国际英语资讯:News Analysis: UK GDP growth weathers Brexit vagaries_时事

国际英语资讯:News Analysis: UK GDP growth weathers Brexit vagaries

This kind of highly unusual activity in February in the GDP figure and in March in the PMI figures indicated that Brexit uncertainty was driving businesses to hedge against supply chain disruption.

Archer said: "When you compare that manufacturing figure with Europe and elsewhere in the world, it is out of kilter with what is generally happening in manufacturing sectors in most places. So you have to think there is something unusual influencing the figures, and that unusual thing is Brexit."

The original situation was that the UK would leave on March 29, so obviously companies were stockpiling in February and March "because they were worried that a disruptive Brexit would occur", Archer added.

BREXIT FEARS TO CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON ECONOMY

The worries over Brexit are likely to continue to weigh down the UK economy through much of the rest of the year.

Even with a resolution of Brexit, in the form of an agreed and certain decision by the UK government and the EU which is accepted by both their parliaments, there still would be a likely Brexit hit to the economy, according to Archer, as highly stimulated growth through stockpiling now would lead to lower growth later as those stockpiles are consumed.

Brexit could happen on Friday, unless an extension decision is agreed between the UK and the EU. But if Brexit does not happen then, especially should a long-term extension be agreed by both sides, stocks built up will be run down.