The weight of that task is going to fall on fiscal policy, because the central bank is unwilling to loosen monetary policy too much for fear of stoking inflation. Hence the disappointment among investors when the finance ministry announced that it was targeting a deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP, just a touch higher than last year. More spending is needed to make up for the gaps left by weak exports and sluggish construction. And with low levels of public debt, China can also easily afford this. 由于央行担忧刺激通胀,不愿过多放松货币政策,因此这项任务会落在财政政策上。所以,当中国财政部宣布将预算赤字设为相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的1.5%之时,投资者颇为失望,这个水平仅比去年略高。中国需要更大的开支力度,才能填补出口走软、建设乏力造成的经济增长缺口。目前较低水平的公共债务水平,意味着中国能够负担得起更大的开支。
From a longer-term perspective, a bigger fiscal deficit is also a vital ingredient in the economic rebalancing that is required to keep Chinese growth on track. As Mark Williams with Capital Economics wrote this week: “Many inside and outside of government have agonised for years over what policy changes are needed to boost domestic demand. There is a straightforward answer: government should simply spend more itself.” 从长远来看,扩大财政赤字也是中国实现经济再平衡的一个关键手段之一,而再平衡则是维持中国经济增长不脱离正轨的必要措施。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的马克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)本周撰文称:“政府内部和外部的许多人,多年来一直在为需要作出哪些政策转变来推动内需而困扰。有一个直截了当的答案,就是政府自己应该花更多的钱。”
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