We can be thankful, then, that the government appears to have under-reported its spending plans. Its forecast deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP looks more like a 2.4 percent shortfall on closer inspection, according to Citigroup economists. 那么,对于政府在公布预算草案时似乎对赤字打了折扣的做法,我们应该心存谢意才对。花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家分析道,尽管中国政府宣布的预计赤字相当于GDP的1.5%,但经过更细致的研究,赤字将实际上相当于GDP的2.4%。
They highlighted two accounting oddities that explain this discrepancy. 这些经济学家们指出了两项反常规的会计操作,可以解释二者的差距。
First, excess revenue of Rmb270bn last year was plunked into a "fiscal stabilisation fund", allowing Beijing to leave it out of the 2011 accounts and count it as revenue this year. If counted as 2011 revenue, which it clearly was, this year's deficit would be higher by 0.5 percent of GDP. 第一,去年2700亿元人民币的额外财政收入,被划入“预算稳定调节基金”。这使得北京方面得以将其列在2011年财政收入之外,计入今年的收入。如果将这笔资金计入2011年的收入(显然应该如此),那么今年财政赤字规模将会增加GDP的0.5%。
Second, Rmb192bn of local spending was booked last year but will not actually happen until this year. Accounted for as 2017 expenditure, which it is, China's deficit would rise by a further 0.35 percent of GDP. 第二,计入去年支出的1920亿元人民币地方政府财政开支,实际上今年才会发生。如果计入2017年支出(显然应该如此),那么财政赤字还会再增加GDP的0.35%。
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