不过争吵也的确有好处:与政治和谐年相比,在僵持年内,公司债的回报率平均每年高出近9个百分点。与约翰逊教授的一同参与研究工作的詹森(Gerald Jensen)说,僵持降低了政府出台重大项目的可能性,而政府项目容易引发通胀,而且对债券价格不利。詹森是北伊利诺伊大学(Northern Illinois University)的金融学教授。
Which party controls the White House certainly appears to matter. Since 1926, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained almost exactly twice as much under Democratic presidents as under Republicans, according to quantitative stock analysts Pankaj Patel and Joseph Handelman of Credit Suisse. Stocks have racked up an average annual return of 15.4% when a Democrat is in the White House, versus 7.8% under Republican presidents.
当然,哪个党控制白宫似乎也很重要。据瑞信(Credit Suisse)股市定量分析师帕特尔(Pankaj Patel)和汉德尔曼(Joseph Handelman)说,自1926年以来,民主党总统执政期间标普500指数涨幅几乎正好是共和党总统当政期间的两倍。民主党执掌白宫时,股市平均年回报率为15.4%,相比之下,共和党总统执政期间为7.8%。
That doesn't mean stocks are bound to boom if Pres. Obama is re-elected. But as Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, points out, a presidential election hasn't resulted in a Democrat in the White House with a Congress divided along those lines in at least 112 years. So the historical averages might not even matter.
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