Not all are convinced by such an outcome, however. Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer of fixed income at TCW, says the dollar bounce is likely to fade as QE fails to deliver a sustained US recovery. “The more likely scenario is a stagflationary outcome and I’m not a fan of the dollar longer term.”
道明证券(TD Securities)策略师理查德·吉尔胡利(Richard Gilhooly)说:“美元指数随风险资产一同上涨,说明市场现在预期美元进入了凭借强劲数据走强的新阶段,并据此进行操作,进而在美联储更加确信政策滞后效应已有效地使经济产生‘逃逸速度’的情况下,推动美国国债收益率上涨。”
Long-term dollar bulls cite another factor: US energy self-sufficiency.
然而,并不是所有人都相信这种结果。TCW固定收益业务首席投资官塔德·里韦尔(Tad Revelle)表示,如果量化宽松未能推动美国经济进入持续复苏轨道,那么此次美元反弹可能后继乏力。里韦尔说:“更大的可能性是出现滞涨,我不看好美元的中长期走势。”
Just as the Reagan tax cuts and military spending boosted the US economy and dollar in the early 1980s and the dotcom boom and higher productivity fuelled faster growth in the mid-to-late-1990s, some analysts argue the shale gas revolution, by reducing foreign energy imports, will transform America’s manufacturing prospects.
看好美元长期走势的人士提到了另一个理由:美国能源现在能够自给自足。
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2020-09-15
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