In Argentina, by contrast, the currency is on a managed slide. There is plenty of it, though, and since it is fast losing its internal value – the government says inflation is at roughly 10 per cent a year; everyone else tells you it is more than 25 per cent – people are in a hurry to spend it. It is rather like Britain in the 1970s: you can buy air tickets and holiday packages in your own currency at the official exchange rate but you have no foreign currency to use once you arrive abroad. There are no new money flows coming into the country (though companies reinvest the profits they make there), Argentina has few external assets earning foreign currency, and it has no access to the credit markets, following a default still fuelling lawsuits 10 years later. So minor fluctuations in the trade account, which the government is obliged to micromanage, are all-determining. Banks are required to lend a substantial proportion of their deposit base at 15 per cent for “productive investment”: no pussy-footing about with persuasion here.

与此形成反差的是，阿根廷货币一直处于有管理的贬值中。不过货币量很充足，而且随着货币快速失去内在价值（政府表示，每年的通胀率大概为10%；但其他人都会告诉你，通胀率高于25%），大家都急匆匆地把钱花掉。这跟上世纪70年代的英国很相似：你可以按官方汇率使用本国货币购买飞机票和度假套餐，但出国之后没有外币可用。没有新的资金流入阿根廷（尽管企业把在那里赚到的利润进行再投资），也几乎没有能赚取外汇的外部资产，同时由于10年前违约引发的官司至今未了结，该国被信贷市场拒之门外。所以，即使贸易账户（政府不得不对其实施微观管理）发生细微的波动，也能产生决定性的影响。银行必须把很大一部分存款以15%的利率贷给“生产性投资”项目；这里可没有循循善诱的劝说。

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