阿里巴巴值多少钱:如果上市,值一千亿美元_BEC初级作文

阿里巴巴值多少钱:如果上市,值一千亿美元

好在有两个数据非常重要。一个是阿里巴巴能卖多少钱。另外一个则是公司的“提成”，即公司通过在它网站上完成的每笔交易中抽取的百分比。提成可能通过广告或交易手续费的形式，也可能综合两种方式。但最终，它代表了公司能够从卖家手中抽取的现金。其他服务，例如借贷等也可能带来收入。但在目前，它们主要只是留住用户、维持市场份额的主要手段而已。

Consider a back-of-envelope valuation exercise. The first question is how big the overall market can get. Say e-commerce in China grows 35% a year for the next two years, and that Alibaba can keep its current market share of around 80%. That would give it just under $300 billion of transactions in 2017 - over four times what eBay's marketplaces handled in 2017.

我们来粗略估算一下它的市值。第一个问题是，总体市场能够变得多大。假设未来两年，中国电子商务以35%的速度增长，而阿里巴巴仍能够保持目前约80%的市场份额。这将使它在2017年获得价值接近3,000亿美元的交易——超过2017年eBay市场份额的四倍。

In reality, many more factors will affect Alibaba's magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of China's regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.