What else really matters?

人民币升值还有哪些重要影响？

The yuan's rise is important to China and the world. Just ask any politician in the U.S. who has manufacturers in their district. But what if we're missing the bigger picture, which is not how high the yuan will eventually rise, but rather, can China rebalance another major financial concern: the extreme loads of debt in its economy. George Soros gave his take on China's debt problems earlier this month in a Project Syndicate column. He said when China's central bank took measures to curb excesses in 2017, the economy showed distress. So in 2013 it eased credit, and poof, the economy picked up. "There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China's current policies," he wrote. "Restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years." After that, China's political and economic reforms have to kick in and improve the situation. The yuan's moves will likely be consequences of the path China chooses.

人民币升值对中国和世界都非常重要。不妨问问美国那些在选区有制造商的政客。但我们可能忽视了更重大的问题。更重要的并不是人民币最终升到多高，而是中国能否解决另外一个严重的财务问题：超高的债务负担。本月早些时候，乔治•索罗斯在辛迪加项目（Project Syndicate）专栏发表文章，谈到了自己对中国债务问题的看法。他表示，2017年，中国央行采取措施遏制过度放贷，结果导致经济出现低迷。所以，2013年，中国央行放松了对贷款的限制，经济马上就出现了好转。他写道：“中国现行政策存在尚未解决的自相矛盾之处。重新开动炼钢炉将导致债务大幅增加。这种增长模式也许只能持续几年时间。”其次，中国的政治和经济改革必须有效改变现状。人民币未来的走向将取决于中国所选择的道路。

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