不过,技术进步经常带来意想不到的影响。正是出于这个原因,这些预测数据印证了佩蒂斯的观点,即驾车变得更安全,将对器官捐献产生不利影响。除了自然死亡,交通事故是器官捐献的最大来源。美国卫生及公共服务部(Department of Health & Human Services)的数据显示,1994年以来,机动车事故在器官捐献中所占的比重为16%。
The inventory pressure from increasing adoption of self-driving cars will add to an already shrinking pool of organ donors. Traffic deaths have been in decline since 1969, when they peaked at 55,043. The drop occurred for a number of reasons: drunk driving deaths have fallen, seat belt use has increased, air bags are more effective, and we drive less.
器官捐献者的数量已经呈下降趋势。自动驾驶汽车得到更广泛的应用后,器官供应的压力会变得更大。美国交通事故死亡人数在1969年达到55043人的最高点,随后不断下降。原因有很多,比如酒驾致死人数减少,更多的人佩戴安全带,安全气囊变得更有效以及驾车人次减少。
All of this has led to a widening gap between the number of patients on the organ wait list and the number of people who actually receive transplants. More than 123,000 people in the U.S. are currently in need of an organ, and 18 people die each day waiting, according to the Department of Health & Human Services. Though the wait list has grown each year for the past two decades, the number of transplants per year has held steady in the last decade, at around 28,000. While that number is still dwarfed by other fatal but preventable situations—the Centers for Disease Control estimate that443,000 people die each year from smoking, for example—it’s enough to make anyone wary of the direction in which the trend is going, and hopeful that 3D printing technology can help turn it around.
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