显然有些商界领袖对经济的分析是正确的,也有很多学者搞错了,简直说都说不完。可是商业上的成功,似乎并不能表示对经济政策有什么特别的洞见。这是为什么呢?
The answer, to quote the title of a paper I published many years ago, is that a country is not a company. National economic policy, even in small countries, needs to take into account kinds of feedback that rarely matter in business life. For example, even the biggest corporations sell only a small fraction of what they make to their own workers, whereas even very small countries mostly sell goods and services to themselves.
用我很多年前发表过的一篇论文的标题来说,答案就是:国家并不是公司。国民经济政策,即使是在一个小国,也需要考虑在商业生活中常常无关紧要的某些类型的反馈。例如,即使是最大的公司,也只会把一小部分的产品卖给自己的员工,然而即使是极小的国家,大多数商品和服务也主要是卖给国内的。
So think of what happens when a successful businessperson looks at a troubled economy and tries to apply the lessons of business experience. He or (rarely) she sees the troubled economy as something like a troubled company, which needs to cut costs and become competitive. To create jobs, the businessperson thinks, wages must come down, expenses must be reduced; in general, belts must be tightened. And surely gimmicks like deficit spending or printing more money can’t solve what must be a fundamental problem.
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