吸烟与肺癌的关系真的有那么大吗_BEC初级作文

吸烟与肺癌的关系真的有那么大吗

It is said that there is a correlation between the number of storks’ nests found on Danish houses and the number of children born in those houses. Could the old story about babies being delivered by storks really be true? No. Correlation is not causation. Storks do not deliver children but larger houses have more room both for children and for storks.

丹麦流传着一种说法，一户人家屋檐上的鹳巢数量与这家人所生孩子的数量存在着相关性。婴儿是鹳鸟送来的古老传说是真的吗？当然不是。相关性跟因果关系不是一回事。鹳不会送来孩子，但大房子有更大的空间为孩子和鹳所用。

This much-loved statistical anecdote seems less amusing when you consider how it was used in a US Senate committee hearing in 1965. The expert witness giving testimony was arguing that while smoking may be correlated with lung cancer, a causal relationship was unproven and implausible. Pressed on the statistical parallels between storks and cigarettes, he replied that they “seem to me the same”.

这是一则人们喜闻乐见的统计趣闻，但如果你知道1965年在美国参议院一场听证会上它是如何被用到的，你就不会觉得那么有趣了。那位做听证发言的专家证人辩称，尽管吸烟或许跟肺癌相关，但两者之间不存在已证明的、令人信服的因果关系。当被问及为何把鹳和孩子的关系与香烟和肺癌的关系进行类比，他回答说，两者“在我看来是一样的”。

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