对比金融市场对待这两种不确定性的方式十分有趣。市场对“英国退欧”(Brexit)消息高度敏感:英镑汇率和英国股市随着每一次新的民调结果而波动。期权定价分析表明,如果英国投票决定退出欧盟,英镑汇率会轻松下跌10%以上,英国股市也差不多。人们普遍认为,与英国退欧相关的不确定性足以影响美联储(Fed)和其他主要央行的政策。
It would in all likelihood be economically very costly for Britain to leave the EU and would raise questions about the future cohesion of the UK. It would also threaten London’s role as a financial centre and curtail British exports to Europe.
如果英国退出欧盟,很可能付出高昂的经济代价,并引发人们对英国未来凝聚力的质疑。这还会威胁伦敦作为金融中心的地位,并使得英国向欧洲的出口下滑。
What I find surprising is that US and global markets and financial policymakers seem much less sensitive to “Trump risk” than they are to “Brexit risk”. Options markets suggest only modestly elevated volatility in the period leading up to the presidential election. While every Fed watcher comments on the implications of Brexit for the central bank, few, if any, comment on the possible consequences of a victory for Mr Trump in November.
让我感到意外的是,美国、全球市场以及金融政策制定者对“特朗普风险”的敏感性似乎比对“英国退欧风险”低得多。期权市场显示,在美国总统大选之前的这段时间内,波动性只是小幅上扬。所有的美联储观察人士都对英国退欧对这家央行的影响进行了评论,但是很少有人(如果有的话)对特朗普11月胜选的可能结果进行评论。
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