Would the renminbi be faring better if it were universally known as the redback? One year on from the devaluation that shocked markets, offshore deposits in the Chinese currency have fallen by a quarter, with its share of payments down more than a third.
如果人民币在全世界被叫做“红背”(redback),其表现会不会更好?人民币那次震惊市场的贬值如今已经过去一年,离岸人民币存款已经减少了四分之一,人民币在支付活动中的份额减少了逾三分之一。
The chances are that these falls are cyclical and not directly linked to the currency’s name. But Eurodollar, as the offshore dollar market is known, rolls off the tongue, unlike offshore renminbi , and traders like catchy names.
这些下降可能是周期性的,和人民币叫什么名字并不直接挂钩。但和离岸人民币不同,离岸美元有一个朗朗上口的名字——“欧洲美元”(Eurodollar),而交易员们喜欢朗朗上口的名字。
For those who think China’s rise as a world economic power will continue, internationalising the renminbi is a long-term economic play as well as Beijing policy. Like the Eurodollar market, which developed outside the US in the postwar period, its use will ultimately be determined by demand outside its home country. Along the way, however, the renminbi will be buffeted by events.
对于那些认为中国崛起为世界经济强国的进程还将持续的人而言,人民币国际化既是北京方面的一项长期政策,也是一场长期的经济竞赛。就像战后在美国以外发展起来的欧洲美元市场一样,人民币在国际上的使用最终将由本国以外的需求决定。然而,人民币在国际化的过程中将受到种种事件的冲击。
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