鉴于德国是全球最成功的经济体之一,而巴伐利亚州又是德国经济最成功的行政区之一,我脑子里确实冒出了这样一个想法:信任或许是经济成功的秘诀之一。世界银行(World Bank)经济学家史蒂夫•克纳克(Steve Knack)长期思考信任这件事,他曾告诉我如果以足够广的角度看待信任,“信任基本能解释美国与索马里人均收入的全部差距。”换句话说,没有信任——以及它的关键补充,守信——经济就不可能发展。
Simple activities become arduous in a low-trust society. How can you be sure you won’t be robbed on the way to the corner store? Hire a bodyguard? (Can you trust him?) The watered-down milk is in a locked fridge. As for something more complex like arranging a mortgage, forget about it.
在一个低信任度的社会里,简单的活动都会变得很费力。你怎么能确定去街角商店的途中不会被抢劫?雇保镖吗?(这个保镖可信吗?)这就像把兑了水的牛奶放在上锁的冰箱里,再怎么谨防都无济于事。至于安排抵押贷款这种更复杂的事,干脆就别想了吧。
Prosperity not only requires trust, it also encourages it. Why bother to steal when you are already comfortable? An example of poverty breeding mistrust comes from Colin Turnbull’s ethnographic study The Mountain People (1972), about the Ik, a displaced tribe ravaged by Ugandan drought in the 1960s. If Turnbull’s account is itself trustworthy (it may not be), in the face of extreme hunger, the Ik had abandoned any pretence at ethical behaviour and would lie, cheat and steal whenever possible. Parents would abandon their own children, and children betray their own parents. Turnbull’s story had a horrific logic. The Ik had no hope of a future, so they saw no need to protect their reputation for fair dealing.
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