But first, the immediate impact: the Trump administration's new list of Chinese products to be subject to tariffs will make the import of most of these goods from China prohibitively expensive for U.S. importers, as they don't have the kind of profit margins that would enable them to absorb the cost of these tariffs. If fully implemented, these tariffs will effectively lead to a complete halt in affected Chinese exports to the U.S., potentially amounting to $250 billion.
这将对中国经济产生什么影响呢?首先,作为和美国一样庞大的经济体,一直以来中国相对不怎么受外部的干扰。过去40年中,虽然中国进出口的增长速度与其他所有经济体一样有起有落,但中国实际GDP增长率保持了相对稳定,事实上一直在正增长。
How would that affect the Chinese economy? First of all, China, as a large economy like the United States, has always been relatively immune to external disturbances. During the past four decades, while the rates of growth of Chinese exports and imports have fluctuated like those of all other economies, the rate of growth of Chinese real GDP has remained relatively stable, and in fact has always stayed positive.
此外,过去10年中国对出口的依赖已经持续减弱。商品出口占中国GDP的份额从2006年高峰时的35.3%,降到了2017年的18.1%(见图1)。特别是对美国的商品出口,已经从2006年高峰时占中国GDP的7.2%降至2017年的3.4%,下降了一半以上。
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