长期发展动向
Longer-Term Developments
重要的是我们要意识到,有两个重要的长期发展动向将会同时发挥作用。
It is important to realize that there are two important longer-term developments simultaneously in play.
首先,贸易战的主要原因之一其实并不在于贸易本身,而在于中美两国之间的经济和技术优势之争。这场竞赛无论是明是暗,都不是从唐纳德·特朗普总统开始的,就算他离任也不会消失。“亚洲再平衡”和“跨太平洋伙伴关系”(TPP)这两项旨在遏制中国的政策都是在巴拉克·奥巴马总统当政时期提出的(但看来已经被特朗普总统抛弃了)。
First, one of the principal causes of the trade war is actually not trade itself, but competition between China and the U.S. for economic and technological dominance. This competition, whether explicit or implicit, did not begin with President Donald Trump and will not go away even after he leaves office. The “pivot to Asia” and the “Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)”, both policies supposedly meant to contain China, were initiated under President Barack Obama (but seemingly abandoned by President Trump).
这场竞赛有可能带来富有建设性的成果。例如,制造最快超级计算机的竞争让两个国家生产出了更好、更快的超级计算机。美国的超级计算机IBM Summit目前是世界冠军,而中国的神威·太湖之光是2016年和2017年的冠军,而且全部采用了中国自己设计的芯片。不过,科技战争也可能使市场日益孤立,从而扼杀创新。
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