In fact, the problems with the dollar are raising a wider issue for forex divisions at investment banks: their top investors are starting to vote with their feet. Just as the effect of the eurozone crisis on the euro made it difficult to predict how the single currency would trade, investors are now starting to avoid the dollar, too. FX heads and traders say hedge funds are giving up trying to make money in currencies and are instead trading interest rates and equities, which are seen as more predictable in the present market environment.
美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)数据显示,在美联储9月份确定推出QE3之后,投机者开始大批卖空美元,导致今年美元首次出现净空头头寸。但在相同的6周期间内,美元指数上涨。
That is a serious problem in a market where the US dollar makes up 86 per cent of all trades. Investment banks say volumes across the forex market have been falling, with some opting to cut prices for clients. Figures from EBS, the trading platform owned by ICAP, show a 39 per cent fall in daily forex volumes in September from the previous year.
事实上,围绕美元的疑惑在投行外汇部门引发了更为广泛的问题:它们的最主要投资者开始用脚投票。欧元区危机对欧元产生的影响使得人们很难预测欧元的走势,同样,投资者也开始规避美元。外汇主管和交易员表示,对冲基金正在放弃尝试从外汇交易中赚钱,转而从事利率和股票交易,在当前的市场环境下,利率和股票更容易预测。
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