Nowhere in the region has this proposition been more tested than in Syria. For as long as Mr Assad’s regime held on to power – using the same techniques his father employed – the lesson was that tyranny pays. Now that his hold appears finally to be slipping, the authority of that lesson is dealt a serious blow.
叙利亚对该命题的考验程度超出了该地区其它国家,因为只要阿萨德政权继续掌权(采取其父当年使用的方法),结论就是实施暴政有好处。随着他对局势的掌控似乎终于开始减弱,这一结论的权威性受到沉重打击。
It may, however, not be a decisive one. If Syria disintegrates into sectarian war; if Sunnis take revenge on Alawites; if all that changes is the identity of the oppressor, not the nature of the oppression; the savage tools of the past will retain their appeal. Dictators and extremists may conclude that the only mistake Mr Mubarak or Mr Assad made was not to be brutal enough. While the moral and strategic case for Mr Assad’s departure is compelling, it remains to be seen whether this would bring more or less security in the near term. The belief is that the regime’s fall would be a serious setback for Iran and Hezbollah and a net gain for more moderate (or pragmatic) forces. But when it comes to realpolitik, this conclusion may be temporary.
不过,这种打击可能还不够决定性。如果叙利亚分裂,陷入教派战争;如果逊尼派(Sunnis)报复阿拉维派教徒(Alawites);如果一切的变化只是换了压迫者,而非压迫的本质,那么昔日的残暴工具将保留其吸引力。独裁者和极端分子可能得出结论:穆巴拉克或阿萨德犯下的唯一错误是不够残暴。尽管要求阿萨德下台的道德和战略理由是有说服力的,但这在近期内能够增强还是削弱安全仍是未知数。人们的信念是,阿萨德政权倒台将使伊朗和真主党(Hezbollah)受到重挫,而对更加温和(或者说务实)的势力则在总体上是有利的。但放在现实政治中,这一结论可能只是暂时的。
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