Investing is not an exact science. Paraphrasing two of the industries' priests, you don't need to know a man's exact weight to know that he is fat, nor do you need to know a basketball player's exact height to know he is very tall.

投资并非精密科学。借用两位行业专家的话，你不需要知道一个人的具体体重就能知道他很胖，你也不需要知道一个篮球球员的具体身高就能知道他很高。

If you focus on only acting in those few instances where you have a clear winner and watch for opportunities that come along every once in a while, sometimes years apart, you are likely to do better than the Wall Street analysts that stay up nights trying to decide if Union Pacific is worth $50 or $52.

如果你只关注几种投资产品，确定自己稳赚，并找准偶尔出现的机会，有时是多年不遇的时机，你就能比华尔街分析师做得还要好，他们可能还要熬几宿来确定美国联合太平洋铁路公司的股票值$50还是$52。

Instead, you wait till the stock is trading at $28 then pounce. When you find a truly excellent business, you are often best served through near total passivity and holding until death.

你就可以等着直到该股票以$28交易时就下手，你发现真正好的商机时，通常是在几乎完全被动的情况下一辈子持有这只股票就能大赚一笔。

This approach has minted a lot of secret millionaires, including janitors earning near minimum wage and sitting atop $8,000,000 fortunes.

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